Life these days is expensive. The persistent effects of the pandemic, the invasion of Russia of Ukraine, the highest prices of fuel and energy, and the extreme climate shocks strangulators of the supply chain have conspired to make many daily needs much less affordable. The increase in food costs in particular has become a source of financial stress for millions of American homes. Although general inflation has cooled from a record peak in 2022, food prices increased Almost a quarter in the last four years And they are expected to continue going up.
So far this year, Americans have faced a national outbreak of flu to birds, promoting The cost of eggs at record levelswhile increasing temperatures and erratic rains in West Africa are Describing chocolate prices to new maximums. Years of drought in the United States have also contributed to historically low levels of cattle inventories, Present meat prices. The result is to shoot supermarket invoices, more strict household budgets and decreased food access.
It is not likely that the latest commercial decisions of President Donald Trump help the situation. In the midst of an avalanche of ads on federal funds of funds, the terminations of the food program and the dismissals of the mass government, the president has been issuing sanctions again and out again aimed at the largest commercial partners of the United States. In the period of a single week, he promulgated general tariffs against the goods of Mexico, Canada and China, exempt some products under the commercial agreement of the United States-México-Canada, and then doubled the tariffs in China before threatening a new set of taxes on Canadian products. On Tuesday, he ordered his administration to weaken to the imports of steel and Canadian aluminum, which later returned to 25 percent before they were locked up Effect on Wednesday morningwhich caused immediate retaliation levies of Canada and the European Union.
The nature similar to a pendulum of Trump’s commercial policies, economists said to Grist, almost certainly means higher prices in the grocery store. Ha Fantasy financial markets and caused the main retailers as The CEO of Target, Brian Cornell, to warn That if some of the promised tariffs enter into force, customers could see the label clash for fresh products “in a matter of days.”
“When it comes to extreme climatic shocks, which are destroying our supply chains, climate change is increasing prices and the creation of food inflation,” said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University. If the policy formulators do not completely explain that adjusting commercial policies, he said, to some extent, “we will see the impacts composed of rates and clashes related to climate change in the supply chain.”
Tariffs, or taxes charged for imported goods from other countries, are usually a negotiation tactic fought by governments in an international trade game, with consumers and producers trapped in the sight. When goods enter a country, tariffs are calculated as a percentage of their value and pay the importer. The importer can choose to transmit the cost to consumers, which, in the case of something like Fresh fruit grown in MexicoIt often ends up every day. Given the scope of the United States in Canada, Mexico and China for agricultural trade, farmers, analysts, business leaders, those in charge of formulating policies and the general public have raised concerns On the effect of tariffs on groceries of groceries and the possibility that commercial wars slow economic growth.
During Trump’s first term, China taxes triggered retaliation tariff $ 27 billionthat the government had to cover with subsidy payments. To date, the United States has not completely recovered its loss in the market share of soybean exports to China, its largest agricultural export market. A Analysis of the National Office of Economic ResearchA non -profit organization discovered that the 2018 trade war with China was largely approved as increases in the prices of the United States, reducing consumer income by approximately $ 1.4 billion per month. The rural agricultural sectors in the west and west of the mountain were affected by the retaliation rates of China than most others, according to the analysis.
This time, Trump seems to have doubled the tactics, although the demands and messaging of their tariff policy have remained very unpredictable, with economists calling the president a “”Chaos agent and confusion. “All counted, China, Canada and Mexico supplied approximately 40 percent of the goods that the US imported last year. In 2023, only Mexico was the source of envelope Two thirds of vegetables imported to the USand about 90 percent of avocados consumed throughout the country.
Without taking into account any retaliation tariff, the estimates suggest that the taxes imposed by Trump last week could be equivalent to an average tax increase of any place between $ 830 a year and $ 1,072 By the e. Uu. “I am a bit nervous about the increase in tension,” Lee said. “I could lead to immediate shock in supermarket prices.”
Canada and China have responded with their own rates. Canada rates imposed last week amounted to Almost $ 21 billion In American products, such as orange juice, peanut butter and coffee. China imposed 15 percent taxes on wheat, corn and chicken produced by American farmers, in addition to 10 percent rates in products that include soybeans, pork, beef and fruit that It entered into force on Monday. Meanwhile, Mexico planned to announce retaliation tariffs but Instead, he celebrated Trump’s decision to postpone. On Wednesday, in response to the Trump steel and aluminum rates walk, Canadian officials announced a Second wave of duties of $ 20.7 billion and the European Union declared that it would begin Commercial action of retaliation next month For a variety of US industrial and agricultural products. That includes sugar, beef, eggs, poultry, peanut butter and bourbon.
With Trump planned rates, Americans can expect to see fresh products sent from Mexico, such as tomatoes, strawberries, avocados, limas, mangoes and papayas, as well as types of tequila and beer, they become more expensive. Other agricultural products are likely from Canada, including fertilizers, chocolate, canola oil, maple syrup and pork. The new tasks on potassa, a key ingredient in fertilizers and steel used in agricultural machinery from Canada could also indirectly raise food prices. Many of these products, such as avocados, vegetable oils, cocoa and mangoes, are already seeing price labels in part due to the increase in temperatures.
Although there is no shortage of questions around Trump’s tariff policy at this time, James Sayre, an agricultural economist from the University of California, Davis, said that even this current state of international commercial uncertainty will lead to a greater charge of re -estible costs for consumers.
“All this uncertainty is really bad for companies that expect to import or establish new supply chains abroad, or for any large -scale investment,” Sayre said. “Only this degree of uncertainty will increase prices for consumers and reduce the choice of consumer in the supermarket … even more than tariffs themselves.”
All the time, climate change continues to feed food inflation, leaving US consumers to pay the bill of a heater world and the cascade effects of an administration Apparently it is dedicated to the alteration of global commercial relations.
“Actually, it is a bit difficult to anticipate what we can expect from the current administration when we see the load of food inflation by tariffs or trade, and also at the same time, we have clashes related to the climate in the supply chain,” Lee said. “Hopefully we will not see an unexpected composition effect for these two very different animals.”
This article originally appeared in Grinding in https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/what-trumps-escalating-trade-wars-mean-for-your-grocery-bill/. Grist is a non -profit independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climatic solutions and a fair future. Get more information in Grist.org.